Guide · Layer 3

Economic Layer

Written for: seed / Series A scientist-founder

What you get from this layer is unit economics — the levelized cost, what it costs to make one unit of product over the plant’s life. It comes from combining two estimates: the operating cost (what you spend every year to run the plant) and the capital cost (what you spend once to build it).

How you get there: take the process & mass flows from Layer 2, put a price on each stream, then get the two down to one comparable number. Capital is spent once and operating every year, so you can’t add them until they’re on the same annual footing.

One mindset throughout: hunt the tallest grass. A factored estimate here is a ±30–50% range, so most of the answer sits in a handful of big equipment items and a couple of input prices — the rest is bookkeeping. Report to the precision the method can carry: the answer is ~$800/t, not $805/t.

1. 3.1 — Operating costs — the yearly cost to run the plant: usage × a sourced unit price, split into variable costs (scale with output) and fixed costs (don’t).
2. 3.2 — Capital costs — what it costs once to build the plant: size the big equipment items, build up to total capital investment, then annualize with the CRF so it sits beside the yearly costs.
3. 3.3 — Revenue — how much you sell and at what price, netted against the downstream work and any credits.
4. 3.4 — Pull it together — roll the streams into one levelized-cost number, laid out as a simplified income statement you can defend.

Start with 3.1 — Operating costs →